KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

47%

24%

20%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.20u · EPS −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	26.5%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	18.9%	24.6%	1.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	22.6%	33.0%	10.0%	27.2%	8.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	52%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	64.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	62.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗