KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

47%

24%

20%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.20u · EPS −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	35.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	35.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	35.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	35.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	35.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	20.7%	4.8%	46.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	20.7%	4.8%	46.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	20.7%	4.8%	46.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	23.8%	4.8%	46.1%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	23.8%	4.8%	46.1%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	46.1%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	46.1%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	46.1%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	23.8%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	21.6%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	31.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	34.7%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	6.9%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	20.2%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	47.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	20.2%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	47.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:18+00:00	20.2%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	47.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	20.2%	5.4%	41.5%	18.0%	47.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	20.2%	3.9%	51.7%	23.8%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	52%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	64.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	62.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗