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KBUF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
AIFS
71%
WN2
71%
HRES
56%
ICON
45%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u
VS
ICONNO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.60u · ICON −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 98.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.5%———22.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0062.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0035.4%———59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0071.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0054.2%———53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0033.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0052.7%———48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0041.0%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.8%———54.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0042.6%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0095.2%———61.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0084.8%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0090.9%———59.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0057.4%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0085.7%———62.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0077.2%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0083.2%———59.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0069.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0092.8%———60.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0092.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0081.9%———53.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0068.9%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0027.8%—64.9%—59.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0027.0%—42.9%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0018.5%———50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:009.4%—37.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0013.9%—98.2%—48.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—92.1%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0022.6%—54.5%—48.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:006.9%—53.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0045.3%16.3%83.7%41.9%34.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0015.4%—79.7%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%61.3°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single71%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 271%59.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES56%57.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%57.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON45%55.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261027-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗