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KBUF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
AIFS
71%
WN2
71%
HRES
56%
ICON
45%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u
VS
ICONNO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.60u · ICON −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:0910-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:0071.1%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0071.1%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0071.1%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0071.1%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0071.2%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0071.2%83.6%70.9%55.6%45.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%61.3°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single71%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 271%59.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES56%57.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%57.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON45%55.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261027-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗