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KBUF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 16:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
EPS
7%
AIFS
6%
HRES
4%
WN2
4%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 1.61u
VS
WN2NO 93.5¢Risks 23.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.39u · WN2 −23.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0010.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.4%———8.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0014.9%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.8%———6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.1%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.3%———5.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.4%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%———6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.7%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0052.7%———9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0028.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:007.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0029.7%———9.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0019.7%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0026.0%———8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0013.0%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0042.3%———8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0041.1%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0021.3%———5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.7%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.9%—8.3%—6.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.8%—2.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.3%———3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%—1.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%—58.1%—2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%—30.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.3%—3.2%—2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%—2.8%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.6%0.1%14.7%1.3%0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—10.7%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——1.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%55.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%61.4°F4.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend6%57.0°F7.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single6%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%57.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%59.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗