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KBUF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 16:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
EPS
7%
AIFS
6%
HRES
4%
WN2
4%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 1.61u
VS
WN2NO 93.5¢Risks 23.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.39u · WN2 −23.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:5510-20 16:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:006.3%7.1%3.6%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:006.3%7.1%3.6%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:006.3%7.1%3.6%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:006.3%7.1%3.6%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:006.2%7.1%3.5%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:006.2%7.1%3.5%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T15:31:36+00:006.2%7.0%3.5%4.2%9.4%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:006.2%7.0%3.5%4.2%9.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%55.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%61.4°F4.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend6%57.0°F7.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single6%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%57.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%59.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗