KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 97.2¢Risks 24.31u

AIFSNO 2.8¢Risks 0.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.69u · AIFS −0.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:58+00:00	60.4%	93.2%	80.4%	64.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	60.4%	93.2%	80.4%	64.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	60.4%	93.2%	79.2%	64.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	60.4%	93.2%	79.2%	64.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	60.4%	93.2%	79.2%	64.8%	83.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	79.2%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	79.2%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	79.2%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	79.2%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	79.2%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00	68.1%	93.2%	85.0%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	68.1%	96.4%	85.0%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	68.1%	96.4%	85.0%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	76.9%	96.4%	85.0%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	76.8%	96.3%	84.8%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:33+00:00	76.8%	96.3%	84.8%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	76.8%	95.9%	84.8%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	76.8%	95.9%	82.4%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	76.8%	95.9%	82.4%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	76.8%	95.9%	82.4%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	76.8%	95.9%	82.4%	66.8%	95.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	82.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	82.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	82.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	82.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	78.1%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:14+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	84.3%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	85.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	85.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	85.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	82.6%	95.9%	85.4%	60.3%	95.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:34+00:00	75.6%	95.9%	85.4%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	75.6%	95.9%	85.4%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	75.6%	95.9%	85.4%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	75.6%	95.9%	85.4%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	75.6%	96.4%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	75.6%	96.4%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	75.6%	96.4%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	75.6%	96.4%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	77.7%	96.3%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	87.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	77.7%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	98.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	90.6%	86.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	90.6%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	81.4%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:07+00:00	92.1%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	94.3%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	94.3%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	94.3%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	94.3%	96.6%	89.2%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	94.3%	96.6%	89.2%	91.4%	100.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	95.0%	100.0%	98.2%	92.5%	100.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	95.0%	100.0%	98.2%	92.5%	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	95.0%	100.0%	98.2%	92.5%	100.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	94.4%	100.0%	98.2%	96.0%	100.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	94.5%	100.0%	98.2%	96.0%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	72.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	98%	62.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	96%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	94%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0030
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1901
National Blend	25%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗