KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 97.2¢Risks 24.31u

AIFSNO 2.8¢Risks 0.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.69u · AIFS −0.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	98.8%	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	98.6%	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	99.0%	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	98.3%	98.3%	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	99.8%	99.9%	65.1%	—	85.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	99.3%	78.5%	—	86.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	73.0%	91.6%	78.4%	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	92.8%	91.3%	92.5%	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	76.9%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	94.2%	92.9%	79.9%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	79.9%	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	97.1%	75.2%	82.8%	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	92.8%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	98.8%	94.5%	93.7%	—	73.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	99.9%	98.5%	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	98.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	98.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	100.0%	99.7%	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	100.0%	99.9%	99.1%	99.9%	97.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	100.0%	98.6%	98.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	100.0%	99.0%	97.3%	—	95.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	100.0%	99.7%	97.1%	—	93.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	100.0%	99.9%	96.5%	100.0%	94.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	100.0%	99.8%	95.4%	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	100.0%	100.0%	96.0%	100.0%	97.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	100.0%	100.0%	97.7%	—	96.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	100.0%	100.0%	95.6%	100.0%	97.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	98.3%	98.6%	89.5%	—	79.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	25.0%	65.4%	21.4%	11.0%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	70.5%	15.0%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	72.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	98%	62.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	96%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	94%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0030
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1901
National Blend	25%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗