KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

60%

40%

35%

25%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

AIFSNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.25u · AIFS −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:38+00:00	27.1%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	27.1%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00	27.1%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	27.1%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:09+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T03:44:30+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:00+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:22+00:00	26.5%	82.8%	45.2%	46.9%	94.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:33+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	45.2%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	45.2%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	45.2%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	45.2%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	45.2%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	27.2%	81.0%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	27.2%	81.0%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	27.2%	81.0%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:34+00:00	21.9%	81.0%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:09+00:00	21.4%	80.8%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T15:11:22+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T17:27:48+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	38.7%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	40.4%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	21.4%	80.7%	40.4%	53.6%	94.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00	19.7%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	19.7%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:47+00:00	19.7%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	19.7%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	19.7%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:23+00:00	19.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	19.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	19.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	24.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	24.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:35+00:00	24.8%	80.7%	40.4%	35.2%	59.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	68.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6512
ICON	60%	63.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1632
IFS HRES	35%	59.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1239
AIFS Single	25%	57.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0615

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗