KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

60%

40%

35%

25%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

AIFSNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.25u · AIFS −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	93.7%	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	99.5%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	92.2%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	93.3%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	89.8%	89.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	97.4%	98.1%	31.1%	—	57.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	93.8%	44.9%	—	57.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	36.5%	66.3%	43.2%	—	37.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	67.7%	64.1%	67.0%	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	38.7%	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	70.0%	66.2%	41.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	40.7%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	78.6%	33.8%	43.9%	—	20.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	63.2%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	86.7%	67.0%	64.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	96.8%	83.5%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	99.9%	98.9%	93.2%	—	82.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	99.9%	99.6%	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	99.9%	99.8%	97.5%	—	83.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	100.0%	91.6%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	100.0%	95.3%	84.5%	95.3%	74.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	100.0%	78.6%	76.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	100.0%	80.1%	68.0%	—	59.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	100.0%	89.8%	65.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	100.0%	92.5%	59.9%	97.0%	52.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	99.9%	90.8%	52.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	99.8%	95.7%	52.7%	98.4%	59.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	99.7%	98.9%	59.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	99.7%	99.4%	45.7%	97.9%	54.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	59.0%	61.9%	26.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	5.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	6.3%	0.1%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	68.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6512
ICON	60%	63.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1632
IFS HRES	35%	59.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1239
AIFS Single	25%	57.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0615

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗