KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

83%

68%

50%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

ICONNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.15u · ICON −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	40.3%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	9.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	73.7%	21.4%	37.6%	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	89.7%	37.1%	53.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	75.5%	46.2%	80.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	86.9%	69.8%	67.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	19.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	88.4%	87.1%	43.4%	—	46.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	74.0%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	69.3%	90.6%	50.9%	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	48.2%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	49.1%	83.4%	23.7%	—	16.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	49.0%	73.2%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	61.5%	76.0%	27.9%	—	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	54.0%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	64.1%	54.1%	32.1%	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	69.3%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	59.7%	35.1%	38.2%	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	62.2%	42.2%	0.1%	—	31.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	59.2%	54.6%	47.7%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	66.4%	60.7%	51.2%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	71.3%	68.0%	57.4%	29.8%	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	62.7%	74.1%	67.5%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	66.9%	79.0%	78.0%	33.1%	52.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	73.5%	81.8%	66.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	77.8%	88.5%	64.2%	44.2%	58.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	78.7%	89.5%	66.2%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	72.4%	84.8%	65.4%	37.6%	46.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	79.7%	88.5%	58.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0018
AIFS Single	92%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
IFS Ensemble	83%	61.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0289
IFS HRES	68%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1050
National Blend	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
ICON	50%	58.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗