KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

83%

68%

50%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

ICONNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.15u · ICON −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:33+00:00	76.3%	74.8%	95.0%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	76.3%	72.2%	95.0%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	76.3%	72.2%	94.7%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	76.3%	72.2%	94.7%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	76.3%	72.2%	94.7%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	76.3%	72.2%	94.7%	90.0%	93.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	83.6%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:14+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	94.7%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	96.0%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	96.0%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	96.0%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	89.0%	72.2%	96.0%	76.3%	84.4%
2026-10-13T08:02:34+00:00	76.2%	72.2%	96.0%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	76.2%	72.2%	96.0%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	76.2%	72.2%	96.0%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	76.2%	72.2%	96.0%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	76.2%	68.7%	84.3%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	76.2%	68.7%	84.3%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	76.2%	68.7%	84.3%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	76.2%	68.7%	84.3%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	69.3%	68.7%	84.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	84.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	84.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	84.1%	67.1%	91.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	91.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	91.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	91.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	67.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	85.8%	62.1%	92.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	88.3%	62.2%	92.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	88.3%	62.2%	92.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	69.3%	70.8%	88.3%	62.2%	92.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	56.4%	70.8%	88.3%	62.2%	92.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	56.4%	70.8%	88.3%	62.2%	92.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:45+00:00	81.9%	44.8%	88.2%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	81.9%	44.8%	88.2%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	81.9%	44.8%	92.3%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	81.9%	44.8%	92.3%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	81.9%	44.8%	92.3%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:53+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	92.3%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	92.3%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	92.3%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	92.3%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	92.3%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	84.2%	44.8%	93.1%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	93.1%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	84.2%	49.0%	93.1%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	87.4%	49.0%	93.1%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	87.4%	49.0%	93.1%	43.8%	68.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	93.9%	57.1%	70.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	70.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	70.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	70.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	83.7%	54.0%	92.7%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	83.7%	51.2%	88.4%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	83.7%	51.2%	88.4%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	83.7%	51.2%	88.4%	57.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	88.6%	51.2%	88.4%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	88.6%	51.2%	88.4%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.3%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.3%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.6%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.6%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.6%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	90.2%	83.0%	96.6%	60.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	96.6%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	96.6%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	96.6%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	96.6%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	87.8%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	91.5%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	91.5%	83.0%	95.7%	67.6%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0018
AIFS Single	92%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
IFS Ensemble	83%	61.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0289
IFS HRES	68%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1050
National Blend	59%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
ICON	50%	58.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗