KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

95%

66%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.1¢Risks 83.10u

EPSNO 16.9¢Risks 16.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.90u · EPS −16.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	74.3%	—	—	85.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	49.3%	91.2%	—	—	83.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	53.5%	90.4%	53.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	93.4%	89.0%	92.6%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	96.1%	98.5%	91.9%	—	80.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	95.5%	98.0%	64.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	11.4%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	88.8%	97.3%	25.8%	—	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	76.0%	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	93.5%	92.3%	8.6%	—	66.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	92.5%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	91.7%	85.1%	77.0%	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	93.9%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	94.6%	68.7%	76.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	95.8%	9.6%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	96.5%	75.7%	86.1%	—	83.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	97.7%	91.2%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	95.0%	93.8%	96.0%	0.3%	94.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	95.8%	97.8%	1.6%	—	96.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	95.2%	97.8%	98.5%	84.0%	96.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	98.8%	97.1%	98.6%	—	96.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	98.6%	98.5%	98.8%	0.1%	97.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	97.8%	98.5%	98.4%	—	95.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	98.1%	98.8%	97.8%	89.9%	97.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.5%	99.0%	98.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.4%	99.6%	98.9%	96.5%	98.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.5%	99.8%	98.5%	—	98.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	99.4%	98.4%	98.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	98%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0006
ICON	95%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0029
IFS Ensemble	66%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1142
National Blend	56%	59.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗