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KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
98%
ICON
95%
EPS
66%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 83.1¢Risks 83.10u
VS
EPSNO 16.9¢Risks 16.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.90u · EPS −16.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00ICON: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00ICON: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 07:4310-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:0098.9%66.2%99.9%94.4%97.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:0098.9%66.2%99.9%94.4%97.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0098.9%66.2%100.0%94.4%97.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0098.9%66.2%100.0%94.4%97.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:0099.3%66.2%100.0%97.6%94.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0099.3%66.2%100.0%97.6%94.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:0099.3%66.2%100.0%97.6%94.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0099.3%66.2%100.0%97.6%94.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0099.3%66.2%100.0%97.6%94.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-16 18:000.0000
AIFS Single>99%68.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0000
IFS HRES98%66.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0006
ICON95%64.2°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0029
IFS Ensemble66%60.4°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.1142
National Blend56%59.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 00:000.1927
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗