KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

94%

92%

75%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.20u

ICONNO 12.8¢Risks 12.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.80u · ICON −12.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	56.5%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	30.0%	80.2%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	33.0%	78.1%	33.0%	—	64.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	83.0%	75.1%	81.6%	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	88.2%	94.6%	79.5%	—	60.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	86.4%	92.8%	40.5%	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	3.4%	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	72.1%	90.3%	10.1%	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	52.6%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	80.4%	77.9%	2.2%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	77.8%	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	75.6%	63.6%	51.8%	—	33.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	79.7%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	81.0%	40.4%	49.0%	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	83.6%	2.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	84.9%	46.9%	62.2%	—	58.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	88.4%	71.2%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	79.4%	76.2%	82.4%	0.0%	77.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	81.0%	87.7%	0.1%	—	83.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	78.5%	87.3%	90.0%	54.6%	84.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	91.3%	84.0%	90.3%	—	82.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	89.4%	88.8%	90.5%	0.0%	84.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	85.0%	88.5%	87.8%	—	77.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	85.9%	89.3%	84.3%	60.6%	82.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	93.8%	90.2%	84.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	92.2%	93.7%	88.5%	76.6%	88.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	92.0%	95.2%	84.7%	—	83.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	95.9%	97.6%	90.4%	82.9%	86.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	99.6%	99.6%	97.2%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	94%	66.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	92%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0067
ICON	75%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0620
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗