KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

94%

92%

75%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.20u

ICONNO 12.8¢Risks 12.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.80u · ICON −12.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:45+00:00	84.3%	61.9%	87.9%	44.5%	81.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	84.3%	61.9%	87.9%	44.5%	81.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	84.3%	61.9%	96.0%	44.5%	81.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	84.3%	61.9%	96.0%	44.5%	81.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	84.3%	61.9%	96.0%	44.5%	81.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:53+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.0%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.0%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.0%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.0%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.0%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	77.7%	61.9%	96.4%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	77.7%	58.3%	96.4%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	77.7%	58.3%	96.4%	57.1%	87.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	88.0%	58.3%	96.4%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	88.0%	58.3%	96.4%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	96.4%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	96.4%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	98.2%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	98.2%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	98.2%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	88.0%	61.6%	98.2%	57.1%	87.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	98.2%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	98.2%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	98.2%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	98.2%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	82.0%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	89.3%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	89.3%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	89.3%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	89.3%	61.6%	95.7%	64.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.2%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.2%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.6%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.6%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.6%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	97.1%	93.9%	99.6%	89.3%	77.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.6%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.6%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.6%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.6%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	95.5%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	96.0%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	96.0%	93.9%	99.3%	91.8%	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	94%	66.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	92%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0067
ICON	75%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0620
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗