KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

86%

79%

58%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

ICONNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · ICON −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	43.5%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	19.4%	69.4%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	21.4%	66.4%	21.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	72.2%	62.3%	70.3%	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	78.9%	89.0%	67.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	75.8%	85.5%	26.1%	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	56.6%	81.0%	4.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	35.8%	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	66.2%	62.9%	0.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	62.4%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	59.1%	45.4%	33.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	63.9%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	65.2%	23.2%	30.4%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	68.3%	0.5%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	69.7%	27.6%	41.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	74.7%	51.1%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	60.8%	56.5%	64.9%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	62.2%	72.4%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	58.1%	71.0%	75.8%	32.0%	65.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	77.5%	65.3%	75.6%	—	63.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	73.4%	72.4%	75.4%	0.0%	65.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	65.1%	70.9%	69.8%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	65.7%	71.6%	63.2%	34.3%	60.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	79.9%	72.4%	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	75.5%	78.8%	68.2%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	74.0%	81.9%	60.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	82.9%	88.3%	69.7%	56.3%	62.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	96.3%	96.6%	85.9%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0014
AIFS Single	88%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0135
IFS Ensemble	86%	66.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0207
IFS HRES	79%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0437
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1056
ICON	58%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗