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KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
AIFS
88%
EPS
86%
HRES
79%
ICON
58%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u
VS
ICONNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · ICON −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.7% · 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS HRES: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS HRES: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS HRES: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00ICON: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:00ICON: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00ICON: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00ICON: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00ICON: 57.9% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:0010-16 04:2310-18 04:1310-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:23:50+00:0079.0%45.0%88.2%48.4%71.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:0079.0%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:0079.0%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:0079.0%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:0070.4%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:0070.4%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:0070.4%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:0070.4%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:0070.4%45.0%89.7%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:0070.4%24.7%81.3%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:0070.4%24.7%81.3%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:0070.4%24.7%81.3%48.4%71.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:0077.3%24.7%81.3%18.0%71.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:0077.3%24.8%81.3%18.0%71.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:0089.5%82.3%96.5%81.7%54.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:0089.5%82.3%96.9%81.7%54.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:0089.5%82.3%96.9%81.7%54.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:0089.5%82.3%96.9%81.7%54.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:0089.5%82.3%96.9%81.7%54.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:0091.1%82.3%96.9%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:0091.1%82.3%96.9%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:0091.1%82.3%96.9%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:0091.1%82.3%96.9%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:0091.1%86.1%96.3%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:0091.1%86.1%96.3%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:0091.1%86.1%96.3%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:0091.1%86.1%96.3%79.0%57.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:0088.4%85.6%96.3%79.1%57.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%68.7°F2.9°F2026-10-18 00:000.0014
AIFS Single88%68.2°F3.9°F2026-10-18 06:000.0135
IFS Ensemble86%66.9°F3.2°F2026-10-18 00:000.0207
IFS HRES79%66.5°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:000.0437
National Blend68%65.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:000.1056
ICON58%64.2°F3.5°F2026-10-18 00:000.1781
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 03:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗