KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

59%

57%

28%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

ICONNO 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.95u · ICON −40.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	31.2%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	11.4%	56.7%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	12.6%	52.8%	12.6%	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	58.7%	47.8%	56.6%	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	66.3%	80.0%	52.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	61.8%	74.5%	14.9%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	0.4%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	40.1%	67.8%	1.7%	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	21.4%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	49.1%	45.6%	0.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	44.6%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	40.9%	28.2%	19.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	45.3%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	46.1%	11.1%	15.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	49.0%	0.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	50.0%	13.4%	23.5%	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	55.3%	30.7%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	39.2%	35.1%	43.5%	0.0%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	40.0%	51.1%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	35.2%	48.8%	54.6%	14.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	56.0%	41.6%	53.6%	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	48.8%	52.5%	0.0%	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	39.8%	46.1%	44.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	39.4%	46.0%	36.8%	14.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	55.6%	45.8%	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	48.5%	52.9%	40.0%	23.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗