KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

59%

57%

28%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

ICONNO 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.95u · ICON −40.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:14+00:00	68.5%	42.1%	81.7%	68.2%	42.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	68.5%	42.1%	82.8%	68.2%	42.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	68.5%	42.1%	82.8%	68.2%	42.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	68.5%	42.1%	82.8%	68.2%	42.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	68.5%	42.1%	82.8%	68.2%	42.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:34+00:00	64.0%	42.1%	82.8%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	64.0%	42.1%	82.8%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	64.0%	42.1%	82.8%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	64.0%	42.1%	82.8%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	64.0%	32.0%	75.1%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	64.0%	32.0%	75.1%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	64.0%	32.0%	75.1%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	64.0%	32.0%	75.1%	58.4%	74.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	59.7%	32.0%	75.1%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	75.1%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	75.1%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	75.1%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	59.7%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	75.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	79.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	79.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	79.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	74.4%	58.4%	79.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	74.4%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	67.5%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	67.5%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	67.5%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00	47.7%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	79.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	59.6%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	59.6%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	59.6%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	59.6%	33.5%	82.0%	53.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	59.6%	33.5%	82.0%	23.9%	75.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	59.6%	24.3%	66.0%	23.9%	75.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	59.6%	24.3%	66.0%	23.9%	75.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	59.6%	24.3%	66.0%	23.9%	75.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	49.2%	24.3%	66.0%	23.9%	75.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	49.2%	24.3%	66.0%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	66.0%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	66.0%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	66.0%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	56.8%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	56.8%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	49.2%	26.5%	56.8%	23.9%	75.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	56.8%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	56.8%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	56.8%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	56.8%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	56.8%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	54.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	58.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	58.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	58.0%	26.5%	57.7%	20.3%	59.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	75.3%	66.9%	86.4%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	75.3%	59.4%	86.4%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	75.3%	59.4%	86.4%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	75.3%	59.4%	84.1%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	75.3%	59.4%	84.1%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	75.3%	59.4%	84.1%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.1%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.1%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.1%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.1%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.1%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	76.9%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	84.9%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	90.4%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	90.4%	57.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	80.6%	59.4%	90.4%	57.5%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗