KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

89%

86%

77%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 88.45u

HRESNO 11.5¢Risks 11.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.55u · HRES −11.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	68.7%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	17.1%	82.9%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	84.2%	83.4%	18.4%	—	63.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	83.5%	78.0%	43.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	89.0%	86.2%	21.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	82.1%	75.8%	60.3%	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	18.9%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	89.9%	75.5%	52.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	79.2%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	88.7%	76.6%	58.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	84.5%	74.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	86.1%	83.4%	86.7%	—	65.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	80.4%	82.9%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	80.3%	82.3%	74.5%	—	69.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	74.3%	84.2%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	69.7%	87.2%	68.8%	0.1%	60.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	73.0%	87.9%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	82.4%	88.6%	77.8%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	79.4%	85.2%	0.1%	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	81.0%	87.9%	70.0%	0.0%	60.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	86.8%	85.5%	73.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	89.4%	89.4%	77.3%	65.8%	68.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	86.5%	89.1%	72.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	88.7%	91.1%	68.1%	63.2%	64.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	94.2%	92.9%	78.9%	—	71.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	97.7%	95.6%	82.8%	80.9%	75.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	98.2%	81.9%	—	66.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	74.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	69.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	68.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗