KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

89%

86%

77%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 88.45u

HRESNO 11.5¢Risks 11.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.55u · HRES −11.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:46+00:00	93.4%	56.4%	92.1%	63.7%	92.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	93.4%	56.4%	92.1%	63.7%	92.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	93.4%	56.4%	97.2%	63.7%	92.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	93.4%	56.4%	97.2%	63.7%	92.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	93.4%	56.4%	97.2%	63.7%	92.2%
2026-10-15T07:48:54+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	97.2%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	97.2%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	97.2%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	97.2%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	97.2%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	81.7%	56.4%	96.4%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	81.7%	59.6%	96.4%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	81.7%	59.6%	96.4%	71.6%	88.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	90.5%	59.6%	96.4%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	90.5%	59.6%	96.4%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	96.4%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	96.4%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	98.5%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	98.5%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	98.5%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	90.5%	63.4%	98.5%	71.6%	88.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	88.6%	63.4%	98.5%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	88.6%	63.4%	98.5%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	88.6%	63.4%	98.5%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	88.6%	63.4%	98.5%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	88.6%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	88.7%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	88.7%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	95.5%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	95.5%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	95.5%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	95.5%	63.4%	98.0%	77.7%	92.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	96.6%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	96.6%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	96.6%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	97.4%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	93.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	90.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	90.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	90.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.5%	78.2%	90.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.5%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.8%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.9%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	98.1%	44.0%	99.9%	79.4%	90.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	98.4%	44.0%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	98.4%	44.0%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	98.4%	44.0%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	98.4%	44.0%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	98.4%	44.0%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	98.4%	90.2%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	98.4%	90.2%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	98.4%	90.2%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	98.0%	90.2%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	98.0%	89.4%	99.9%	77.0%	85.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	74.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	69.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	68.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗