KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

59%

56%

55%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

ICONNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · ICON −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	65.2%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	9.9%	72.9%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	74.3%	73.1%	10.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	72.8%	65.7%	29.7%	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	80.0%	76.1%	11.8%	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	69.8%	61.8%	44.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	9.9%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	80.5%	60.7%	36.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	65.0%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	77.9%	61.3%	41.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	71.3%	58.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	73.4%	69.5%	74.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	64.8%	68.2%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	64.3%	67.0%	56.8%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	56.0%	69.2%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	73.2%	49.0%	0.0%	39.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	53.2%	73.8%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	64.9%	74.5%	58.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	60.0%	68.5%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	61.5%	72.0%	47.7%	0.0%	37.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	69.6%	67.5%	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	73.4%	73.4%	55.0%	41.3%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	67.5%	72.0%	47.4%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	70.5%	74.9%	42.0%	36.8%	38.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	80.9%	77.9%	54.2%	—	44.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	89.8%	83.7%	58.6%	55.8%	48.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	90.8%	56.0%	—	36.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	68.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	68.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗