KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

59%

56%

55%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

ICONNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · ICON −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:34+00:00	84.9%	56.1%	92.2%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	84.9%	56.1%	92.2%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	84.9%	56.1%	92.2%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	84.9%	56.1%	92.2%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	84.9%	48.9%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	84.9%	48.9%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	84.9%	48.9%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	84.9%	48.9%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	80.8%	48.9%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	92.6%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	80.8%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	79.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	79.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	79.6%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	91.4%	69.9%	79.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	91.4%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	79.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	95.8%	63.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	95.8%	37.4%	83.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	69.5%	33.4%	83.7%	37.4%	83.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	69.5%	33.4%	83.7%	37.4%	83.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	69.5%	33.4%	83.7%	37.4%	83.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	62.6%	33.4%	83.7%	37.4%	83.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	63.1%	33.4%	83.3%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	83.3%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	83.3%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	83.3%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	76.7%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	76.7%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	63.1%	35.3%	76.7%	37.5%	83.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	76.7%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	76.7%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	76.7%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	76.7%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	76.7%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	87.9%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	87.1%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	87.1%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	87.1%	35.3%	83.8%	51.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	90.2%	44.2%	94.0%	66.1%	87.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	90.2%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	87.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	90.2%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	87.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	90.2%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	87.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	67.6%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	67.6%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	67.6%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	67.6%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	67.6%	44.2%	93.4%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	67.6%	29.6%	90.2%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	67.6%	29.6%	90.2%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	67.6%	29.6%	90.2%	66.1%	85.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	93.4%	29.6%	90.2%	64.8%	85.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	93.4%	29.7%	90.2%	64.8%	85.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.2%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.2%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.0%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.0%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.0%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	94.4%	73.5%	99.0%	61.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	99.0%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	99.0%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	99.0%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	99.0%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	93.8%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.4%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.7%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.7%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.7%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	94.1%	73.5%	98.7%	51.8%	57.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	95.1%	73.5%	98.7%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	95.1%	73.5%	98.7%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	95.1%	73.5%	98.7%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	95.1%	73.5%	98.7%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	95.1%	59.7%	99.0%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	95.1%	59.7%	99.0%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	95.1%	59.7%	99.0%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	95.1%	59.7%	99.0%	53.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	99.0%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	99.0%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	99.0%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	99.0%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	53.9%	62.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.7%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.9%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.8%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.8%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	93.4%	52.6%	98.8%	56.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	93.3%	52.6%	98.8%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	93.3%	52.6%	98.8%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	93.3%	52.6%	98.8%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	93.3%	52.6%	98.8%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	93.3%	52.6%	98.8%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	93.3%	58.5%	98.0%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	93.3%	58.5%	98.0%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	93.3%	58.5%	98.0%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	92.2%	58.5%	98.0%	62.7%	57.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	92.3%	58.5%	98.0%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	98.0%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	98.0%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	98.0%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	97.7%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	97.7%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	92.3%	58.6%	97.7%	62.7%	58.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.7%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.7%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.7%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.7%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.7%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	91.5%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	94.0%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	94.0%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	94.0%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	94.0%	58.6%	97.1%	56.4%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	68.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	68.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗