KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

86%

68%

58%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.9¢Risks 77.90u

HRESNO 22.1¢Risks 22.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.10u · HRES −22.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	47.6%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	88.0%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	44.6%	90.4%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	79.1%	79.6%	27.5%	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	59.4%	70.9%	57.3%	—	64.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	81.6%	72.4%	88.2%	—	65.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	89.6%	65.5%	83.7%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	34.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	82.2%	47.5%	73.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	64.2%	61.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	64.6%	61.3%	70.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	75.0%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	42.7%	74.1%	58.2%	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	55.7%	67.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	68.7%	74.5%	58.7%	—	34.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	43.0%	68.3%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	69.7%	67.0%	46.9%	—	34.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	73.8%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	81.0%	58.7%	57.6%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	75.1%	61.1%	2.1%	—	34.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	72.0%	63.7%	45.4%	2.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	79.2%	65.3%	46.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	86.3%	69.2%	62.3%	48.8%	45.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	75.2%	60.2%	—	43.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	66.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	65.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗