KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

86%

68%

58%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.9¢Risks 77.90u

HRESNO 22.1¢Risks 22.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.10u · HRES −22.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00	92.1%	64.8%	98.2%	66.1%	88.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	92.1%	64.8%	98.2%	66.1%	88.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	92.1%	64.8%	98.3%	66.1%	88.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	92.1%	64.8%	98.3%	66.1%	88.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	89.3%	64.8%	98.3%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	89.3%	64.8%	98.3%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	89.3%	64.8%	98.3%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	89.3%	64.8%	98.3%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	89.3%	64.8%	98.3%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	89.3%	96.0%	97.4%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	89.3%	96.0%	97.4%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	89.3%	96.0%	97.4%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	91.9%	96.0%	97.4%	60.3%	75.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	91.8%	96.0%	97.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	97.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	97.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	94.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	94.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	94.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	91.8%	96.7%	94.3%	60.3%	75.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	94.3%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	94.3%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	94.3%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	94.3%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	88.1%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	92.2%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	92.2%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	92.2%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	90.8%	96.7%	92.2%	57.9%	57.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	89.6%	96.7%	92.2%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	89.6%	96.7%	92.2%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	89.6%	96.7%	92.2%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	89.6%	96.7%	92.2%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	89.6%	91.8%	96.7%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	89.6%	91.8%	96.7%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	89.6%	91.8%	96.7%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	89.6%	91.8%	96.7%	49.1%	75.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	90.5%	91.1%	96.7%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	90.5%	91.1%	96.7%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	90.5%	85.7%	96.7%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	90.5%	85.7%	96.7%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	90.5%	85.7%	95.2%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	90.5%	85.7%	95.2%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	90.5%	85.7%	95.2%	49.1%	75.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	95.2%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	95.2%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	95.2%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	95.2%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	95.2%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	86.4%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	94.9%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	97.8%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	97.8%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	89.7%	85.7%	97.8%	51.8%	75.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	97.8%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	97.8%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	97.8%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	97.8%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	97.8%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	92.3%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	92.3%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	92.3%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	90.8%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.3%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	54.9%	79.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	97.9%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	90.9%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	92.8%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	92.8%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	92.8%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	92.8%	86.4%	98.1%	57.7%	68.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	66.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	65.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗