KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 19:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

26%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u

EPSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.10u · EPS −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	17.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	18.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	6.9%	7.2%	0.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.6%	3.3%	1.4%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.6%	2.9%	9.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.0%	1.4%	5.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.6%	0.3%	1.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	0.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%	1.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	1.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.9%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	27%	73.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	73.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	67.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗