KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

87%

83%

75%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.3¢Risks 87.35u

HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.65u · HRES −12.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	91.0%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	46.6%	68.2%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	92.8%	64.4%	67.7%	—	61.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	91.8%	34.3%	64.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	60.6%	35.8%	86.2%	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	73.9%	84.6%	89.6%	—	61.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	36.4%	89.8%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	60.7%	87.5%	79.3%	—	70.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	74.0%	89.7%	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	93.0%	90.6%	77.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	89.6%	94.5%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	90.2%	91.4%	67.0%	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	86.3%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	90.6%	91.0%	73.7%	—	78.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	92.0%	90.8%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	86.6%	92.9%	55.1%	—	77.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	94.8%	95.0%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	95.3%	95.5%	81.0%	67.9%	83.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	95.5%	1.0%	—	81.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	72.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	67.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	65.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗