KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

49%

47%

38%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.40u · EPS −36.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	44.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	83.2%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	64.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	13.5%	29.4%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	65.7%	24.6%	27.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	61.6%	6.6%	23.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	18.9%	6.5%	47.7%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	28.8%	42.9%	52.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	5.8%	51.6%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	16.2%	45.8%	33.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	26.0%	49.1%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	56.1%	50.0%	29.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	46.4%	59.8%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	46.3%	49.1%	17.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	37.0%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	45.1%	20.3%	—	24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	46.0%	43.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	33.0%	46.9%	7.8%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	51.1%	52.1%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	51.1%	52.2%	22.1%	11.9%	24.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	50.0%	0.0%	—	21.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗