KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

49%

47%

38%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.40u · EPS −36.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	89.4%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	89.4%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	89.4%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	51.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	80.1%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.1%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	79.4%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	40.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	80.0%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	47.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	80.0%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	47.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00	80.0%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	47.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	80.0%	32.8%	87.7%	43.8%	47.8%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00	80.0%	37.5%	89.6%	47.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	80.0%	37.5%	89.6%	47.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	80.0%	37.5%	89.6%	47.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	80.0%	37.5%	89.6%	47.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	80.0%	37.5%	89.7%	47.1%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗