KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

21%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.90u · EPS −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	17.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.7%	2.9%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.8%	1.8%	2.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	12.0%	0.1%	1.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	5.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.5%	3.8%	6.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	0.1%	5.5%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	0.4%	3.8%	1.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	0.9%	4.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	5.4%	3.9%	1.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	2.9%	6.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	2.6%	3.0%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	1.3%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.8%	1.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.6%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.8%	1.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.5%	1.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	72.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗