KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

21%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.90u · EPS −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:54+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	11.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	11.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	11.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	11.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	11.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	8.8%	2.0%	10.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	10.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	8.8%	1.9%	10.8%	3.1%	16.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	11.1%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	11.1%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:39+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	11.1%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	11.1%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	13.9%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	13.9%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	13.9%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	18.1%	2.3%	13.9%	3.3%	15.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	28.9%	8.4%	10.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	28.9%	8.4%	10.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	28.9%	8.4%	10.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	28.9%	8.4%	10.6%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	4.0%	8.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	4.0%	8.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	4.0%	8.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	4.0%	8.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	24.0%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	24.0%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	4.1%	9.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	16.5%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	24.0%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	9.0%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	21.1%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	21.1%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	21.1%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	24.6%	0.5%	21.1%	5.2%	5.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	25.7%	0.5%	21.1%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	25.7%	0.5%	21.1%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	25.7%	0.5%	21.1%	4.3%	12.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	25.7%	0.5%	21.1%	4.3%	12.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	72.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗