KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

35%

28%

22%

13%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	15.1%	32.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	18.0%	70.8%	19.9%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	22.6%	30.4%	35.7%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	3.9%	40.9%	18.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	40.7%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	15.4%	37.5%	27.4%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	6.0%	10.6%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.9%	40.1%	9.7%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	4.5%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	3.2%	19.6%	11.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.6%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.4%	10.6%	2.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	2.6%	11.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.2%	7.2%	1.6%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	8.4%	—	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	67.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	65.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗