KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

35%

28%

22%

13%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:55+00:00	10.2%	29.7%	83.2%	36.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	10.2%	29.7%	83.2%	36.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	10.2%	29.7%	78.9%	36.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	10.2%	29.7%	78.9%	36.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	23.5%	29.7%	78.9%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	23.5%	29.7%	78.9%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	23.5%	29.7%	78.9%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	23.5%	29.7%	78.9%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	23.5%	29.7%	78.9%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	23.5%	25.3%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	23.5%	25.3%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	23.5%	25.3%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	47.8%	25.3%	71.8%	27.0%	47.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	47.8%	25.4%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	71.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	61.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	61.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	61.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	47.8%	27.8%	61.8%	26.7%	47.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	61.8%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	61.8%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	61.8%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	61.8%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	48.5%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	34.9%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	34.9%	27.8%	51.7%	12.8%	22.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	67.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	65.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗