KBWI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

76%

67%

45%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	25.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	63.4%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	4.0%	58.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	70.2%	56.3%	24.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	36.4%	49.3%	10.6%	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	61.3%	52.3%	30.3%	—	42.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	64.8%	74.5%	46.0%	50.8%	52.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	73.0%	—	—	58.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	63.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗