KBWI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

76%

67%

45%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	83.5%	51.9%	80.9%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	83.5%	51.9%	80.9%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	83.5%	51.9%	80.9%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	83.5%	51.9%	80.9%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	83.5%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	83.5%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	83.5%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	83.5%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	85.2%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:30+00:00	85.2%	41.0%	80.0%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.2%	35.3%	80.0%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	85.2%	35.3%	80.0%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	85.2%	35.3%	85.9%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	85.2%	35.3%	85.9%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	85.2%	35.3%	85.9%	38.4%	28.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	85.9%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	85.9%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	85.9%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	85.9%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	85.9%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	90.4%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	88.4%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	85.0%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	85.0%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	90.1%	35.3%	85.0%	51.9%	77.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	86.2%	35.3%	85.0%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	86.2%	35.3%	85.0%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	86.2%	35.3%	85.0%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	86.2%	35.3%	85.0%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	86.2%	35.3%	85.0%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	86.2%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	86.2%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	86.2%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	86.6%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	84.3%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	91.5%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	91.5%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	86.7%	45.2%	91.5%	57.2%	59.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	91.5%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	91.5%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	91.5%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	91.5%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	91.5%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	87.1%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	86.3%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	86.3%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	86.3%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	86.3%	45.2%	90.4%	67.0%	76.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	63.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗