KBWI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

73%

66%

49%

46%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.7¢Risks 66.70u

HRESNO 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.30u · HRES −33.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	16.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	1.8%	44.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	57.0%	42.3%	14.9%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	23.7%	35.0%	5.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	46.2%	37.2%	18.4%	—	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	49.2%	60.3%	30.9%	35.2%	36.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	58.1%	—	—	41.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	68.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	65.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗