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KBWI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
73%
ICON
66%
EPS
49%
HRES
46%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 66.7¢Risks 66.70u
VS
HRESNO 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.30u · HRES −33.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS HRES: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:0076.5%23.4%81.0%55.4%66.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0076.5%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0076.5%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0076.5%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0072.8%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0072.8%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0072.8%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0072.8%23.4%82.1%55.4%66.5%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:0072.8%48.8%86.8%46.6%66.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0072.8%48.8%86.8%46.6%66.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0072.8%48.8%86.8%46.6%66.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0072.8%48.8%86.8%46.6%66.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0072.9%48.8%86.9%46.5%66.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%70.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single73%68.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON66%68.1°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%65.4°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%65.0°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend44%65.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗