KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

61%

59%

48%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

AIFSNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.70u · AIFS −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	68.1%	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	93.3%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	77.4%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	13.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	33.0%	9.6%	29.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	65.7%	55.1%	65.7%	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	78.9%	68.4%	61.3%	—	62.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	54.0%	81.1%	55.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	4.7%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	66.2%	85.2%	38.5%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	49.1%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	43.9%	84.4%	0.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	35.1%	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.9%	32.2%	0.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	30.1%	57.5%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	54.9%	2.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	28.2%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	25.9%	43.9%	46.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	23.6%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	28.2%	18.3%	31.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	26.7%	14.8%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	22.4%	20.7%	28.9%	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	27.3%	30.4%	21.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	26.6%	29.8%	15.1%	1.6%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	19.1%	37.3%	19.1%	—	18.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	24.0%	42.0%	18.2%	1.3%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	17.3%	35.0%	23.2%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	14.6%	54.3%	24.5%	1.6%	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.0%	54.5%	33.8%	—	15.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.1%	62.4%	29.0%	2.0%	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.9%	54.9%	29.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0392
ICON	78%	73.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0471
IFS Ensemble	61%	69.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1544
IFS HRES	59%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1689
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2125
AIFS Single	48%	68.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2663

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗