KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

61%

59%

48%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

AIFSNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.70u · AIFS −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:42+00:00	23.1%	84.1%	76.9%	89.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	23.1%	84.1%	76.9%	89.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00	23.1%	84.1%	76.9%	89.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	23.1%	84.1%	76.9%	89.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:38+00:00	23.1%	84.1%	76.9%	89.6%	—
2026-10-13T04:15:27+00:00	83.6%	72.3%	90.9%	70.3%	86.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	83.6%	72.3%	91.9%	70.3%	86.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	83.6%	72.3%	91.9%	70.3%	86.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:06+00:00	83.6%	72.3%	91.9%	70.3%	86.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	83.6%	72.3%	91.9%	70.3%	86.3%
2026-10-13T08:02:58+00:00	81.5%	72.3%	91.9%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	81.5%	72.3%	91.9%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	81.5%	72.3%	91.9%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	81.5%	72.3%	91.9%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00	81.5%	57.2%	73.0%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	81.5%	57.2%	73.0%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	81.5%	57.2%	73.0%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	81.5%	57.2%	73.0%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	71.4%	57.2%	72.8%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	72.8%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	72.8%	60.9%	70.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	72.8%	60.8%	70.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	70.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	70.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	71.4%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	70.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	78.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	73.7%	60.8%	78.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	73.7%	58.8%	78.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	80.2%	58.9%	78.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	80.2%	58.9%	78.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	80.2%	60.7%	80.2%	58.9%	78.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	48.4%	60.7%	80.2%	58.9%	78.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	48.4%	60.7%	80.2%	58.9%	78.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0392
ICON	78%	73.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0471
IFS Ensemble	61%	69.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1544
IFS HRES	59%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1689
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2125
AIFS Single	48%	68.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2663

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗