KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

23%

22%

14%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

HRESNO 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.20u · HRES −80.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	56.6%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	88.1%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	66.4%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	7.7%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	21.4%	4.9%	18.4%	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	51.5%	40.6%	51.5%	—	57.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	66.3%	53.8%	46.2%	—	47.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	38.2%	68.4%	39.7%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	1.8%	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	50.0%	73.5%	23.8%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	32.6%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	27.7%	71.6%	0.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	20.2%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.5%	17.8%	0.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	15.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.2%	35.7%	0.6%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	14.0%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	12.3%	25.1%	27.6%	—	4.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	10.6%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	13.1%	7.3%	14.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	11.8%	5.4%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	9.0%	8.1%	12.7%	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	11.4%	13.2%	8.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	10.6%	12.4%	4.9%	0.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.4%	16.6%	6.4%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.4%	19.1%	5.7%	0.2%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.0%	13.9%	7.6%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.7%	26.8%	7.8%	0.2%	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	26.0%	12.0%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	31.7%	8.9%	0.2%	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	24.1%	8.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2052
AIFS Single	32%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1050
WeatherNext 2	23%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	22%	67.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0506
ICON	14%	65.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0199
IFS HRES	7%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗