KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

23%

22%

14%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

HRESNO 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.20u · HRES −80.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	32.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	67.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	34.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	34.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	34.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	34.8%	36.9%	64.2%	45.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:25+00:00	34.8%	36.9%	64.2%	24.8%	41.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	34.8%	21.0%	33.4%	24.8%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	34.8%	21.0%	33.4%	24.8%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	34.8%	21.0%	33.4%	24.8%	41.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	33.2%	21.0%	33.4%	24.8%	41.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	33.2%	21.0%	33.4%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	33.4%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	33.4%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	33.4%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	22.6%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	22.6%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	33.2%	22.5%	22.6%	24.8%	41.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	22.6%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	22.6%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	22.6%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	22.6%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	22.6%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	25.7%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	32.4%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	32.4%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	32.4%	22.5%	23.4%	7.2%	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2052
AIFS Single	32%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1050
WeatherNext 2	23%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	22%	67.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0506
ICON	14%	65.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0199
IFS HRES	7%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗