KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

83%

82%

74%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

HRESNO 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.45u · HRES −14.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	10.1%	—	—	93.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	64.0%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	39.3%	98.7%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	95.3%	97.8%	33.0%	—	95.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	97.8%	99.2%	96.1%	—	96.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	98.0%	99.4%	91.9%	—	97.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	97.0%	99.3%	16.4%	—	91.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	25.6%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	63.1%	99.5%	21.3%	—	76.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	84.8%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	79.2%	96.4%	32.2%	—	80.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	91.5%	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	81.0%	98.2%	95.2%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	81.0%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	87.4%	82.3%	93.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	78.1%	87.6%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	76.5%	88.2%	88.2%	—	78.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	83.1%	87.9%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	83.1%	87.5%	77.8%	0.8%	71.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	74.2%	90.8%	0.3%	—	71.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	75.8%	93.9%	71.0%	39.6%	70.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	68.5%	94.5%	69.6%	—	72.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	65.8%	95.7%	69.2%	0.6%	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	65.1%	94.4%	78.1%	—	70.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	61.9%	95.0%	73.9%	43.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	66.2%	95.0%	77.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	65.5%	97.3%	81.8%	72.0%	75.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	72.8%	98.6%	78.7%	—	74.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	98.9%	84.8%	66.8%	76.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	84.0%	99.0%	89.3%	—	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0007
AIFS Single	91%	70.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0085
IFS Ensemble	83%	67.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0286
ICON	82%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0335
National Blend	78%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0488
IFS HRES	74%	68.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0692
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗