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KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
91%
EPS
83%
ICON
82%
HRES
74%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 85.5¢Risks 85.55u
VS
HRESNO 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.45u · HRES −14.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 72.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 72.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 72.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 73.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00ICON: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:0088.3%50.0%98.7%72.7%81.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0088.3%50.0%97.5%72.7%81.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0088.3%50.0%97.5%72.7%81.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0088.3%50.0%97.5%72.7%81.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:0090.4%50.0%97.5%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0090.4%50.0%97.5%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:0090.4%50.0%97.5%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0090.4%50.0%97.5%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0090.4%50.0%97.5%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0090.4%83.1%97.4%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0090.4%83.1%97.4%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0090.4%83.1%97.4%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:0090.8%83.1%97.4%73.7%81.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0090.8%83.1%97.4%73.7%81.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%71.5°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0007
AIFS Single91%70.9°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0085
IFS Ensemble83%67.8°F2.4°F2026-10-17 00:000.0286
ICON82%68.7°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0335
National Blend78%68.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.0488
IFS HRES74%68.1°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0692
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗