KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

63%

44%

25%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

ICONNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · ICON −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	5.7%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	51.3%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	27.1%	97.1%	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	90.7%	95.1%	21.4%	—	91.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	95.1%	97.8%	91.8%	—	92.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	95.2%	98.2%	84.5%	—	93.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	93.1%	98.0%	8.4%	—	83.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	14.4%	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	46.7%	98.5%	11.2%	—	62.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	72.6%	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	64.6%	91.3%	18.4%	—	66.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	66.1%	95.0%	88.5%	—	66.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	65.7%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	74.5%	67.0%	85.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	60.9%	74.3%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	58.2%	74.9%	74.9%	—	61.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	66.5%	73.8%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	65.9%	72.7%	58.7%	0.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	53.4%	77.7%	0.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	54.6%	83.2%	48.8%	19.9%	47.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	45.2%	84.0%	46.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	41.3%	86.3%	45.0%	0.1%	48.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	39.8%	82.6%	55.1%	—	46.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	35.6%	83.5%	48.7%	20.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	39.0%	82.7%	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	37.2%	88.5%	57.2%	44.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗