KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

63%

44%

25%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

ICONNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · ICON −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	89.9%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	89.9%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	89.9%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	80.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	41.1%	64.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	95.5%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	72.0%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	76.6%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	76.6%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	76.6%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	76.6%	30.3%	94.9%	56.2%	64.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	90.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	90.2%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	86.4%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	86.4%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	86.4%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	86.4%	55.8%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	86.4%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	86.4%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	86.4%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	86.4%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	80.8%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	81.7%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	81.7%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	81.7%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	79.9%	56.6%	81.7%	58.7%	51.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	80.6%	56.6%	81.7%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	80.6%	56.6%	81.7%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	80.6%	56.6%	81.7%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	80.6%	56.6%	81.7%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	80.6%	51.7%	79.5%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	80.6%	51.7%	79.5%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	80.6%	51.7%	79.5%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	80.6%	51.7%	79.5%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	76.9%	51.7%	79.5%	60.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	77.7%	43.9%	80.5%	62.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	77.7%	43.9%	83.2%	62.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	77.7%	43.9%	83.2%	62.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	77.7%	43.9%	83.2%	62.7%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗