KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

43%

31%

10%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.2¢Risks 28.20u

ICONNO 71.8¢Risks 71.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.80u · ICON −71.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	78.2%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	78.2%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	93.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	93.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	93.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	90.4%	41.1%	93.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	93.4%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	93.4%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	93.4%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	93.4%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	44.8%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	78.2%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	46.5%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	42.6%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	42.6%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	42.6%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	42.6%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	42.6%	41.1%	74.9%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	42.6%	8.9%	65.0%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	42.6%	8.9%	65.0%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	42.6%	8.9%	65.0%	37.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	45.4%	8.9%	65.0%	18.5%	54.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	45.4%	9.0%	65.0%	18.5%	54.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	49.0%	11.3%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	41.8%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	49.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	50.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	50.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	50.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	50.0%	9.5%	43.2%	31.4%	6.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	50%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	43%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1866
IFS HRES	31%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0986
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0166
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0090
ICON	6%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0041

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗