KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

43%

31%

10%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.2¢Risks 28.20u

ICONNO 71.8¢Risks 71.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.80u · ICON −71.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	32.4%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	13.2%	91.8%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	78.6%	87.0%	9.3%	—	79.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	86.5%	92.9%	80.1%	—	82.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	86.2%	93.7%	67.0%	—	82.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	81.1%	92.8%	2.4%	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	4.7%	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	23.8%	93.7%	3.3%	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	48.3%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	38.8%	75.9%	5.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	59.8%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	39.1%	82.8%	69.5%	—	39.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	37.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	47.1%	38.5%	62.4%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	46.0%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	28.5%	45.9%	45.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	35.5%	43.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	34.1%	41.3%	27.3%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	22.3%	46.6%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	22.4%	53.5%	18.3%	4.2%	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	15.2%	53.6%	16.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	12.4%	56.2%	14.4%	0.0%	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	10.9%	48.7%	20.0%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	8.4%	48.7%	14.9%	3.2%	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	9.2%	45.8%	16.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	7.8%	54.3%	18.2%	10.8%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	9.9%	61.9%	13.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	6.1%	62.4%	17.1%	6.1%	10.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	59.8%	20.3%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	50%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	43%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1866
IFS HRES	31%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0986
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0166
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0090
ICON	6%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0041

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗