KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

60%

37%

25%

20%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.2¢Risks 50.15u

HRESNO 49.8¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.85u · HRES −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	21.7%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	7.2%	85.3%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	67.0%	78.1%	4.7%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	76.8%	86.5%	68.3%	—	70.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	76.1%	87.5%	52.3%	—	70.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	68.4%	85.5%	0.9%	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	1.8%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	12.9%	86.7%	1.2%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	31.9%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	23.4%	60.4%	2.3%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	42.0%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	23.0%	68.6%	51.8%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	28.7%	21.8%	43.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	16.4%	27.4%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	13.9%	26.8%	26.8%	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	18.3%	24.5%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	16.9%	22.1%	12.5%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.2%	25.8%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	9.0%	31.0%	6.8%	1.1%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	5.1%	30.4%	5.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	32.0%	4.6%	0.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.0%	24.8%	6.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.0%	24.0%	4.3%	0.6%	4.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.1%	21.1%	4.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.6%	26.8%	5.1%	2.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	76.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	70.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	68.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗