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KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
WN2
60%
ICON
37%
EPS
25%
HRES
20%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.2¢Risks 50.15u
VS
HRESNO 49.8¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.85u · HRES −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00AIFS Single: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00AIFS Single: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00AIFS Single: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00AIFS Single: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00AIFS Single: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.6% · 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.6% · 2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00IFS HRES: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00IFS HRES: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS HRES: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS HRES: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 33.9% · 2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00ICON: 33.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00ICON: 33.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00ICON: 33.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00ICON: 33.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0010-12 07:4710-15 07:4910-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:0087.0%56.2%91.8%87.8%33.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:0087.0%56.2%91.8%87.8%33.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:0087.0%56.2%91.8%87.8%33.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:0087.0%56.2%91.8%87.8%33.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:0087.0%56.2%91.8%87.8%33.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:0071.3%47.2%60.6%17.9%31.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:0071.3%47.2%60.6%17.9%31.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:0071.3%47.2%75.2%17.9%31.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:0071.3%47.2%75.2%17.9%31.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:0071.3%47.2%75.2%17.9%31.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:0018.1%47.2%75.2%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0018.1%47.2%75.2%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0018.1%47.2%75.2%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:0018.1%47.2%75.2%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0018.1%47.2%75.2%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:0018.1%47.2%59.6%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:0018.1%25.0%59.6%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:0018.1%25.0%59.6%19.5%37.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:0080.8%25.0%59.6%19.5%37.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0080.8%25.0%59.6%19.5%37.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%76.5°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%73.4°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
National Blend46%72.0°F5.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
ICON37%70.9°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%69.4°F4.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%68.2°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗